Fido Flash — January 2026

Ghana

GHS

Metric	Budget	Actual	Variance
Revenue (GHS M)	41.7	37.9	-9.2%
Disbursements (GHS M)	330.3	273.5	-17.2%
Loanbook EOM (GHS M)	522.6	463.9	-11.2%
Principal Repaid (GHS M)	327.2	243.3	-25.7%
Write-offs (GHS M)	16.9	14.9	-11.8%

L0 Customers	21,849	20,898	-4.4%
Loans Disbursed	159,194	137,014	-13.9%
Avg Loan Size (GHS)	2,075	1,996	-3.8%

NPL 30+	14.8%	16.2%	+1.4pp
NPL 90+	6.8%	8.8%	+2.0pp

NPL30+ at 16.2% vs 14.8% target: Above budget by 1.4pp (installment-level DPD). At covenant threshold — see Debt Covenants card below.
Disbursements 17% below: Driven by fewer loans (-14%) and smaller avg ticket (-4%, GHS 1,996 vs 2,075).
Loanbook 11% below: Driven by disbursement shortfall.
Revenue 9% below: Yield is stronger than budget (13.8% vs 12.6%) — partially offsetting the volume gap.
On track: L0 (-4.4%), Write-offs 12% below plan (GHS 14.9M vs 16.9M).

UGX

Metric	Budget	Actual	Variance
Revenue (UGX B)	0.4	0.3	-34.7%
Disbursements (UGX B)	4.5	2.5	-45.5%
Loanbook EOM (UGX B)	7.0	6.8	-2.4%
Principal Repaid (UGX B)	4.5	2.2	-51.2%
Write-offs (UGX B)	0.3	0.4	+31.7%

L0 Customers	3,224	2,752	-14.6%
Loans Disbursed	11,108	9,526	-14.2%
Avg Loan Size (UGX)	406,491	258,170	-36.5%

NPL 30+	26.6%	47.9%	+21.3pp
NPL 90+	12.2%	26.2%	+14.0pp

NPL30+ at 47.9% vs 26.6% target: Portfolio quality deteriorating (+21.3pp). Watch for aging into 90+ bucket.
Disbursements 46% below: Driven by fewer loans (-14%) and smaller avg ticket (-36%, UGX 258,170 vs 406,491).
Revenue 35% below: Yield is stronger than budget (11.9% vs 9.9%) — partially offsetting the volume gap.
L0 15% below target: 2,752 new customers vs 3,224 planned. Check marketing funnel and approval rates.
On track: Loanbook (-2.4%).

AT THRESHOLD

Ghana — Jan 2026 (Installment-Level DPD · FIN005) Gross Loanbook GHS 463.9M · 241,507 loans

Facility	PAR30 Threshold	PAR30 Actual	PAR90 Actual	Status
SIMS (PDIF)	≤ 16%	16.23%	8.80%	+0.2pp above
GIP (2 Tranches)	≤ 16%	16.23%	8.80%	+0.2pp above
Stanbic	≤ 16%	16.23%	8.80%	+0.2pp above
Symbiotics	TBD	16.23%	8.80%	Terms pending

Ghana PAR Breakdown — Jan 2026 (Covenant Methodology)

Bucket	Balance (GHS M)	% of Loanbook	Loans	Provision Rate
Current	359.8	77.55%	159,767	1%
PAR0 (1–32d)	28.8	6.22%	17,742	1%
PAR30 (33–62d)	19.9	4.28%	15,074	20%
PAR60 (63–92d)	14.6	3.15%	13,620	40%
PAR90 (93–122d)	20.2	4.36%	17,395	60%
PAR120 (123–152d)	20.1	4.34%	17,717	80%
PAR150 (153d+)	0.5	0.11%	192	100%
PAR30+ (Covenant NPL)	75.3	16.23%	63,998
PAR90+	40.8	8.80%	35,304

PAR30 at covenant threshold: 16.23% vs 16% limit (+0.2pp). All 3 Ghana facilities (SIMS, GIP, Stanbic) share the same threshold. Borderline — CFO reports no breach.
PAR90+ at 8.8%: GHS 40.8M in deep arrears (>90d). More than half of PAR30+ balance (54%) has aged past 90 days — concentration risk in late buckets.
Symbiotics terms unknown: USD $5.4M facility drawn Dec-25. Loan agreement needed to extract covenant thresholds.